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Suggested translation^1,2:

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¹This translation may have been updated from the original suggested translation as a result of the discussions that follow.
²Click on the {verse number} of a translation to see other good translations of the verse.

I suggest,
{4:156} And [We cursed them] because of their disbelief and their saying against Mary a tremendous slander,


"But another was made to resemble him to them" is an interpretation. The Arabic simply says, "but it was made to look [that way] to them."

الظن does not mean assumption, it means conjecture.

I suggest,
{4:157} And [for] their saying, "Verily, we killed the Messiah, Jesus, the son of Mary, the messenger of God." But they did not kill him, and they did not crucify him; but it was made to look [that way] to them. And verily, those who differ over it surely are in doubt about it. There is not for them of it any knowledge except pursuit of conjecture. And they did not kill him, for certain.


I suggest,
{4:158} Rather, God raised him to Himself. And ever has God been Almighty, Wise.


The name of Jesus, peace be upon him, does not appear in this particular verse, though he is the one referred to in it. I suggest an explanatory note, i.e., "but he will surely believe in him (Jesus) before his death."

{4:159} And there is none from the People of the Book but will surely believe in him (Jesus) before his death. And [on] the Day of Resurrection he is upon them a witness.

Another interesting word to translate. It lies somewhere between belief and conjecture. Suspicion and speculation are also possibilities. I see why they resorted to assumption as a compromise, but your suggestion of conjecture is the best candidate so far.

Thanks.

You're right about the meaning of الظن. I recall a talk by the late Sheikh Sha`raawi, may God bless his soul, in which he ranked the levels of certainty as follows:

اليقين
العلم
الظن
الترجيح
الشك
الريب
الوهم

I can see how the translation of الظن as "assumption" can be appropriate in some contexts.